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prices are crashing. What it means for your cup of
joe - November 16, 2022
futures are crashing. But that might not mean too
much for the price of your cup of coffee.
August, Arabica coffee futures were trading at $2.43
per pound. By Wednesday, the price had tumbled to
$1.59, a roughly 35% decline.
are a few reasons for the steady drop in prices, explained
Carlos Mera, head of the agri commodities markets
team at Rabobank.
one thing, weather in Brazil is better than it has
been the past couple of years. Rainfall this fall
suggests that the country will have a good coffee
crop, securing supply.
is usually the start of the wet season, Mera
explained. The start of this wet season was
actually very good.
theres the strength of the US dollar.
the dollar goes up, everything measured in dollars,
like international coffee prices, tend to go down,
Mera said. Farmers outside of the US are incentivized
to sell their products because theyll earn a
price in US dollars which translates to a higher amount
of currency at home.
are keener to sell any stocks that they may be holding,
situation marks a sharp reversal from what was happening
November 2021, coffee futures climbed to the highest
level since January 2012. That was thanks to severe
drought and unusual frost conditions in Brazil, which
caused turmoil in the market.
short supplies of shipping containers put roasters
on edge, inspiring them to stock up as much as possible.
there are some delays, but nothing in comparison
to what it was before, Mera said.
has been getting more expensive for consumers, as
the year through October, not adjusted for seasonal
swings, coffee prices jumped 14.8% in the grocery
store, according to data from the Bureau of Labor
(SBUX) said in November that it has raised prices
this year by about 6%.
the improved conditions wont necessarily mean
a big decline in coffee prices for consumers, Mera
noted. Thats because while coffee prices are
falling, other costs, like labor and distribution,
are still high for producers.
think if we see dropping prices, [they] are going
to be modest, he said.
big coffee companies like Starbucks secure long contracts,
which help protect them from short-term volatility.
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