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Oil
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Brent
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May
25, 2026
ASX
climbs as oil falls below $US100; gold, coal miners
rally
The Australian sharemarket advanced on Monday as crude
oil fell below $US100 a barrel after US officials
signalled that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait
of Hormuz and end the conflict may be imminent.
The
S&P/ASX 200 Index closed up by 0.4 per cent, or
35 points, to 8692, with six of the 11 sectors stronger,
buoyed by gains on Wall Street at the end of last
week. The US market is closed on Monday for the Memorial
Day holiday.
Stocks
climbed as Brent crude dropped 5.5 per cent to $US97.86
US officials suggested a deal with Iran was near that
would help resume the flow of oil and gas through
the vital Middle East waterway after 12 weeks of an
effective blockade. That optimism helped the Australian
dollar climb 0.6 per cent to US71.70¢.
Peace
dividend
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes
said the market was pivoting from pricing geopolitical
fear towards pricing a potential peace dividend on
expectations of Hormuz reopening.
“If
oil and [bond] yields continue moving lower together
as Hormuz traffic normalises, equities could continue
to extend higher simply because a significant portion
of the inflation scare that helped push yields to
multi-year highs would begin to reverse,” he
said.
Mining
stocks were stronger as gold climbed 1 per cent to
$US4554.65 an ounce on the prospect that weaker oil
prices could reduce inflationary headwinds for bullion.
Resolute Mining soared 9.4 per cent to $1.34, while
Newmont added 5.1 per cent to $158.66 and Northern
Star 5.7 per cent to $19.91.
Coal
miners also surged after a deadly explosion at a coal
mine in China’s Shanxi province sent Chinese
coal prices rallying on concerns about supply disruptions.
Whitehaven Coal rose 8.7 per cent to $8.87 and Yancoal
7.5 per cent to $7.04.
That
helped limit the damage from the energy sector amid
the weaker oil price. Woodside Energy dropped 4.2
per cent to $30.74 and Viva Energy lost 5.6 per cent
to $2.18.
Banks
had a mixed session as Commonwealth Bank lost 0.7
per cent to $164.60 after Citi said its share price
was yet to reflect the impacts from the federal budget.
National
Australia Bank was 1.1 per cent higher at $38.28 after
Citi upgraded the stock. Westpac added 0.6 per cent
to $36.77, and the broker’s preferred bank, ANZ,
added 0.8 per cent to $35.77.
Stock
in focus
In company news, Qantas rose 5.8 per cent to $9.18,
buoyed by the easing oil price. This is despite Airbus
announcing that supply chain disruptions had delayed
the airline receiving specially designed A350-1000ULR
aircraft – which is capable of flying Sydney
to London non-stop – until next year.
Fortescue
gained 1.7 per cent to $21.86 as executive director
and former chief executive Elizabeth Gaines plans
to exit the board on June 13 after a 13-year stint.
Former Dutch finance minister Sigrid Kaag will join
the board.
Charter
Hall rallied 6.7 per cent to $20.62 after the property
group upgraded its 2026 operating earnings guidance
for a third time to $1.03 per share.
Adore
Beauty advanced 6.3 per cent to 34¢ after reporting
a 7.4 per cent increase in revenue for the 47 weeks
to May 24 to $193.4 million, with second-half gross
margin expected to be 34.5 per cent.
News
ADNOC
tankers are slipping oil, gas and fuel through Hormuz
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has been quietly
ferrying oil and gas shipments out of the Persian
Gulf using its own fleet, apparently circumventing
both the Iranian navy and US warships to reach energy-starved
customers.
Leaning
on practices including dark transits – when vessels
transit the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders
switched off – ADNOC has been among the most
successful producers when it comes to taking supplies
out of the Middle East, according to tracking data,
traders and people with knowledge of the matter.
ADNOC
has been using vessels controlled by Navig8, a company
that is majority owned by its shipping and logistics
arm, and Wanhua Chemical, a joint-venture partner,
according to the people, who asked not to be named
as the information is not public. These include crude
and clean petroleum product tankers as well as gas
carriers, the people said. The bold gambit highlights
the urgency felt by oil producers, who are rushing
to get supply to market in part because their storage
capacity is limited. Adding to the United Arab Emirates’
eagerness, it officially left the Organisation of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1.
“With
the UAE leaving OPEC and finding ways to send ships
through Hormuz in the dark, Adnoc has been willing
to take more risks in order to get their oil out,”
said Matt Wright, senior freight analyst at intelligence
firm Kpler.
ADNOC’s
method allows it to send some recently exited ships
back into the Persian Gulf for more cargoes, the people
said – so-called shuttle runs that can keep oil
and fuels flowing. Once through Hormuz, the vessels
typically transfer their cargoes to clients’
tankers in safer waters off Fujairah or Sohar, a known
hotspot, or sail to India’s west coast. The short
runs mean the producer can make the most of proximity
to Hormuz, with crudes such as Upper Zakum typically
loading at Zirku Island, while naphtha and liquefied
petroleum gas are picked up from Adnoc’s mega-refinery
at Ruwais. A return journey takes roughly a week.
ADNOC
has also exported at least three liquefied natural
gas cargoes through Hormuz using dark transits. The
latest was spotted over the weekend, loaded with a
cargo and heading to western India, according to ship-tracking
data. For gas exits, empty tankers head toward the
eastern entrance of the strait near the Fujairah anchorage,
where they stop transmitting signals, before transiting
the waterway to load cargoes from Das Island. The
vessels resume broadcasting their location only after
clearing Hormuz and entering the Gulf of Oman once
again.
News
$A
jumps 0.6pc on easing oil prices, rises against other
currencies
The Australian dollar jumped 0.6 per cent to US71.70¢
on Monday; the US dollar pulled back amid rising optimism
that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could ease
rising inflationary pressures, bolstering investor
confidence.
The
dollar slipped last week after a weak labour force
survey shocked markets. Even so, it was still the
second-best performer for the year with a gain of
7 per cent, behind Norway’s krone.
Differences
in interest rates are the key driver of the currency’s
rise, as the Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted
the cash rate three times this year to 4.35 per cent
to combat inflation. Markets imply an 89 per cent
chance of another rate increase before Christmas.
Commonwealth
Bank currency strategist Samara Hammoud said Wednesday’s
CPI data would be a key catalyst for the Australian
dollar this week, with expectations that trimmed CPI
will increase 3.4 per cent in the year to April.
“The
risk is a stronger increase in inflation that pushes
up pricing for another interest rate increase by the
Reserve Bank of Australia and AUD/USD. Nevertheless,
the main influence on AUD/USD this week will be the
USD trend,” she said.
Elsewhere,
the dollar was up 0.2 per cent against the British
pound to 53.10 pence, taking total gains this calendar
year to 6.8 per cent. The dollar lifted 0.2 per cent
to 61.55 euro cents (8 per cent for the year), 0.6
per cent against the Canadian dollar to C98.96¢
and 0.6 per cent against the Singaporean dollar to
S91.53¢.
News
Traders
pivot from oil stocks as US-Iran deal nears
Oil
producers are the biggest laggards on the S&P/ASX
200 on Monday after Brent crude dropped by more than
5 per cent as the US and Iran edged towards a deal
that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Global
crude benchmark Brent fell 6.2 per cent to $US97.10
a barrel before last trading off by 5.6 per cent in
Asian trade at $US97.73. US President Donald Trump
said in social media posts he wouldn’t “rush”
into a deal, which “isn’t even fully negotiated
yet”. Any final approval may take several days,
according to senior US officials.
Bloomberg
reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck
an upbeat tone on Monday, saying the US was going
to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, with a
deal still a work in progress. “We thought we
might have some news last night,” he told reporters
in New Delhi. “Maybe today, I wouldn’t read
too much into it.”
Energy
markets have been roiled since the conflict started
on February 28, with the barrels flowing through the
Strait of Hormuz choke point having all but dried
up, which has caused oil prices to soar and resulted
in shortages across many Asian countries.
SPI
Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes said
if oil and yields continue moving lower together as
Hormuz traffic normalises, equities could continue
to extend higher simply because a significant portion
of the inflation scare that helped push bond yields
to multi-year highs would begin to reverse.
“That
shift in psychology matters because the market spent
most of the past month trading like a ship navigating
through a minefield where every tanker headline threatened
to detonate another inflation shock across global
assets,” he said.
“Now,
traders suddenly find themselves staring at the possibility
that the same geopolitical risk premium which drove
oil, yields and the dollar higher could begin unwinding
simultaneously.”
Shares
in Viva Energy dropped 4.9 per cent, Woodside Energy
by 4.4 per cent, Ampol 4 per cent and Santos 3.8 per
cent. Karoon Energy was the biggest laggard on the
benchmark, as it dropped 5.6 per cent.
News
Indonesia
to lay out commodity export policy soon, officials
say
Global markets and major trading partners can expect
updates on Indonesia’s new commodity export policy
within weeks as the government works on the legal
and structural rollout of its new centralised export
agency, according to a trade ministry official.
Vice
Minister of Trade Dyah Roro Esti Widya Putri said
the new government entity – called Danantara
Sumberdaya Indonesia – is moving from concept
to execution. She was speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview
on Saturday at the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic
Co-operation meeting in Suzhou, China.
“This
is very new, it’s still under progress”
in terms of legislation and the setting up of the
entity, Roro said. “We are going to see how this
progresses over the next few weeks to come.”
President
Prabowo Subianto last week announced the government
would take direct control of exports of some of Indonesia’s
most important commodities. Officials have said Danantara
Sumberdaya will start by taking over export management
of palm oil, thermal coal and some nickel products,
markets that Indonesia dominates.
Prabowo
cited a need for better oversight of shipments, estimating
the resource-rich nation loses up to $US150 billion
annually from “leaks” caused by practices
such as under-invoicing. Total state revenue in South-East
Asia’s largest economy last year was just less
than $US160 billion.
While
key details are still being worked out, there is set
to be an initial transition period when exporters
will be required to report their sales of these strategic
commodities to Danantara Sumberdaya from June 1. The
entity is expected to take control of export contracts,
shipping and payments at a later date once new teams
and systems are in place.
Such
sweeping changes have unnerved investors, who worry
Indonesia could be drifting away from the market-friendly
and fiscally disciplined approach that has underpinned
its economic stability.
The
trade ministry will strive to roll out a highly structured,
step-by-step communication strategy for international
buyers and local stakeholders as the system transitions,
Roro said. Every development over the coming weeks
will be disseminated transparently to ensure global
supply chains face minimal disruption, she said.
News
Oil
declines as US, Israel seek to ease concerns over
Iran war
March
20, 2026
Oil dropped from its highest close since July 2022,
as the leaders of the US and Israel sought to reassure
investors rattled by damage to major Persian Gulf
energy facilities.
Brent
crude fell below $US106 a barrel, while West Texas
Intermediate for May was around $US94. US President
Donald Trump told reporters he’s “not putting
troops anywhere” after being asked about the
possibility of deploying US ground forces, while Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would
refrain from more attacks on Iranian energy facilities.
That
followed the biggest day of strikes on energy assets
since the war started almost three weeks ago, including
extensive damage to the world’s biggest liquefied
natural gas plant in Qatar that will take years to
repair. Brent crude has gained almost 50 per cent
this month, outpacing advances in the more regional
US benchmark WTI, as the near-complete closure of
the Strait of Hormuz hampered supply from the region.
“Price
bias for here stays asymmetric, with Brent potentially
remaining higher as long as Gulf infrastructure and
Hormuz risks are still live,” said Charu Chanana,
chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.
“WTI could be choppier and more capped because
any spike invites US policy response or direct interventions.”
In
other energy markets, European natural gas futures
surged to almost double their pre-war level. Fuel
prices also climbed, underscoring the wider inflationary
risks from the conflict.
Netanyahu
told reporters Thursday (Friday AEDT) that Israel
acted on its own when its jets bombed Iran’s
giant South Pars gas field a day earlier, but that
it would hold off from additional strikes on energy.
He declined to give a timeline on ending the conflict,
but said he could “see this war ending a lot
faster than people think”.
News
Flashback
The
Lead Up
Commodities
News via Media Man and FxPro
May
20, 2024
Oil
shows weakness
Oil
is losing about ¾% of its peak on Monday, having
hit a strengthening sell-off as it attempts to climb
above $80/bbl WTI and $84/bbl Brent.
Interestingly,
oil is declining despite the death of Iran's president,
which should reinforce the risk premium, and despite
a strong rally in metals and other commodities in
response to China's stimulus measures.
News
on the US oil industry points to relative stagnation.
According to Friday's report from Baker Hughes, the
total number of Oil rigs in the US was 497 compared
to 496 and 499 in the last two weeks. We have been
seeing fluctuations around the 500 since last October.
The
official weekly report from the US Energy Information
Administration last week also pointed to stagnant
production at 13.1 million bpd over the last ten weeks.
This volume also is the average over the period since
mid-September.
The
conclusion is that current prices are neutral for
the industry, not creating incentives to increase
production but not causing it to decline either.
The
price chart also shows a clear balance of power for
more than two weeks now. Since December, the price
has been moving in an ascending channel. Oil briefly
fell out of this range last week but found buyers
in the second half of last week, rising from $76.4
to $79.8 in less than three days.
The
bulls are also not yet able to unequivocally retake
the lead, as an attempt to exceed the 200-day moving
average on Monday was met with increased selling.
This may be a signal that the bears are still in control
of the situation and are now gathering strength for
a new downward impulse. We will get confirmation of
this hypothesis only in case of consolidation under
$76.5. It is also relatively easy for oil to roll
back to $75, where the 200-week moving average lies.
However, a failure below $70-$71 could start a real
corkscrew in oil with a potential first target at
$50 and a final target at $30.
The
ability to get back above $80 would be a sign of a
bullish recovery and set the mood for a quick exit
to $85 within weeks and above $92 by mid-summer.
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Iron
ore, gold, copper and Bitcoin rise
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Roy
Morgan Summary
April
19, 2024
Australian
Dollar: $0.6420 USD (down 0.0020 USD)
Iron
Ore May Spot Price (SGX): $116.55 USD (up $0.70 USD)
Oil
Price (WTI): $82.53 USD (down $0.33 USD)
Gold
Price: $2,378.14 USD (up $17.05 USD)
Copper
Price (CME): $4.4310 USD (up $0.0900 USD)
Bitcoin:
$63,661.45 (up 3.83% in last 24 hours)
Dow
Jones: 37,775.38 (up 22.07 points on yesterday's close)
News
Broken
Hill's union-run newspaper the Barrier Truth announces
closure after nearly 130 years
Roy
Morgan Summary
Barrier
Industrial Council president and Barrier Truth board
chair Roslyn Ferry has confirmed that the union-run
newspaper is to cease publication after nearly 130
years, saying it breaks her heart to close down its
operations. Formerly known as the Barrier Daily Truth,
the closure of the paper comes after Broken Hill,
a mining town located on the edge of the desert in
NSW, lost its commercial news bulletin a year ago.
Regional and rural independent newspapers are closing
in increasing numbers, and media experts say Meta's
recent decision to remove the News tab on Facebook
is unlikely to help the situation.
In
economics, a commodity is an economic good or service that has full or substantial
fungibility: that is, the market treats instances of the good as equivalent or
nearly so with no regard to who produced them. The
price of a commodity good is typically determined as a function of its market
as a whole: well-established physical commodities have actively traded spot and
derivative markets. The wide availability of commodities typically leads to smaller
profit margins and diminishes the importance of factors (such as brand name) other
than price. Most
commodities are raw materials, basic resources, agricultural, or mining products,
such as iron ore, sugar, or grains like rice and wheat. Commodities can also be
mass-produced unspecialized products such as chemicals and computer memory. Hard
and soft commodities Soft
commodities are goods that are grown, such as wheat, or rice. Hard
commodities are mined. Examples include gold ,silver, helium, and oil. Energy
commodities include electricity, gas, coal and oil. Electricity has the particular
characteristic that it is usually uneconomical to store, and must therefore be
consumed as soon as it is produced. (Wikipedia) Cash
Crop A
cash crop or profit crop is an agricultural crop which is grown to sell for profit.
It is typically purchased by parties separate from a farm. The term is used to
differentiate marketed crops from subsistence crops, which are those fed to the
producer's own livestock or grown as food for the producer's family. In earlier
times cash crops were usually only a small (but vital) part of a farm's total
yield, while today, especially in developed countries, almost all crops are mainly
grown for revenue. In the least developed countries, cash crops are usually crops
which attract demand in more developed nations, and hence have some export value. Prices
for major cash crops are set in commodity markets with global scope, with some
local variation (termed as "basis") based on freight costs and local
supply and demand balance. A consequence of this is that a nation, region, or
individual producer relying on such a crop may suffer low prices should a bumper
crop elsewhere lead to excess supply on the global markets. This system has been
criticized by traditional farmers. Coffee is an example of a product that has
been susceptible to significant commodity futures price variations. (Wikpedia) Forex
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